Modern MBA

Case study — Media & entertainment · 12 min read · 5 questions

Why esports collapsed and who got paid for it

The thesis

Esports was not a business that failed. It was a transfer that completed. Activision sold twelve Overwatch League seats at $20 million each — for a game five months old with no record as a spectator sport — then quoted expansion seats at $30 to $60 million a year later. In 2023 it waived the fees teams still owed, paid roughly $114 million to dissolve the league, and walked. Nobody was wrong about this. The people who priced it got exactly what they came for.

One level down, the organizations that bought in were never the media companies they described in their decks. They were payment processors. More than 70% of every brand deal and prize pool went straight through to the streamers and players who generated it, which is why gross margins sat at 25% against 49% at The New York Times. The talent got rich, took equity, and in some cases ended up owning the companies that had been paying them.

What kept it running was that no mainstream outlet ever covered the collapse, so there were no consequences and no memory. The CFO who signed off on FaZe's model became chief executive of the company that rescued FaZe. An org was bought for $23 million from an entity co-owned by its buyer's own backers, then dumped at $10 million. A Norwegian team sold at 18 cents a share to a shell with a Cyprus postal address. Each found a buyer because nobody was checking.

How do you think about this? 5 strategy questions this case raises and does not answer.
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The statistics

$20M vs $6MCost of an Overwatch League seat, and what it returned
8 of 8Listed esports orgs now trading as penny stocks
70%Of every deal that never reaches the shareholders

By the numbers — swipe or use arrows

01The audience did what it was supposed toGlobal esports viewership in millions. Occasional viewers overtaking frequent ones by 2019 is the signature of an audience going mainstream.
The audience did what it was supposed to — Why esports collapsed and who got paid for it0M50M100M150M200M250M76M58M2012114M90M2014115M120M2015160M121M2016192M143M2017215M165M2018212M215M2019FREQUENT VIEWERSOCCASIONAL VIEWERSModern MBA
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Frequent viewersOccasional viewers
201276M58M
2014114M90M
2015115M120M
2016160M121M
2017192M143M
2018215M165M
2019212M215M
02And it never leftChange in peak concurrent viewership by title, 2019 against 2023. The biggest games grew while the companies built on them were wiped out.
And it never left — Why esports collapsed and who got paid for it−100%−50%0%50%100%150%142%Street Fighter77%Call of Duty67%Rocket League61%League of Legends27%Counter Strike24%Apex Legends−26%Rainbow Six−27%Dota 2−39%Smash Bros−47%PUBG−69%FortniteModern MBA
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Value
Street Fighter142%
Call of Duty77%
Rocket League67%
League of Legends61%
Counter Strike27%
Apex Legends24%
Rainbow Six−26%
Dota 2−27%
Smash Bros−39%
PUBG−47%
Fortnite−69%
03The baitMedian age of the viewer, 2016. The one genuine asset esports had, and the line that opened every fundraising deck in the sport.
The bait — Why esports collapsed and who got paid for it025507532Esports39Champions League42Premier League43NHL49NFL53NBA55Wimbledon57MLB64PGA TourModern MBA
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Value
Esports32
Champions League39
Premier League42
NHL43
NFL49
NBA53
Wimbledon55
MLB57
PGA Tour64
04A global audience is a cheap oneGeneral advertising cost per thousand views by country. Esports viewership is global, so the headline audience number was never a revenue forecast.
A global audience is a cheap one — Why esports collapsed and who got paid for it$0$10$20$30$40$36USA$32Canada$23UK$22Norway$20Germany$10Mexico$8Korea$8Poland$2IndiaModern MBA
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Value
USA$36
Canada$32
UK$23
Norway$22
Germany$20
Mexico$10
Korea$8
Poland$8
India$2
05The number every deck was underwritten byAnnual payout from domestic media rights. This is the comparison esports made about itself for a decade, to investors who accepted it.
The number every deck was underwritten by — Why esports collapsed and who got paid for it$0B$2.5B$5B$7.5B$10B$10BNFL$6.9BNBA$2.1BPremier League$1.7BMLB$1.3BOlympics$1.3BCollege Football$1.3BNASCAR$1.1BNCAA BasketballModern MBA
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Value
NFL$10B
NBA$6.9B
Premier League$2.1B
MLB$1.7B
Olympics$1.3B
College Football$1.3B
NASCAR$1.3B
NCAA Basketball$1.1B
06What it was actually worthAnnual payouts from the three largest media rights deals ever signed in the sport. The biggest is half a percent of what the NFL collects.
What it was actually worth — Why esports collapsed and who got paid for it$0M$20M$40M$60M$53MActivision 2020–20232020–2023$45MOverwatch League 2018–20202018–2020$38MLPL 2020–20232020–2023Modern MBA
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Value
Activision 2020–2023$53M
Overwatch League 2018–2020$45M
LPL 2020–2023$38M
07So they sold seats insteadPrice of a permanent league seat. Overwatch cost twice a League of Legends slot on a game five months old, then rose 50% after one season.
So they sold seats instead — Why esports collapsed and who got paid for it$0M$10M$20M$30M$30MOverwatch 2019 expansion2019 expansion$25MCall of Duty 20192019$20MOverwatch 2017 inaugural2017 inaugural$13MLCS$13MCS Premier$12MLPL$9MLECModern MBA
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Value
Overwatch 2019 expansion$30M
Call of Duty 2019$25M
Overwatch 2017 inaugural$20M
LCS$13M
CS Premier$13M
LPL$12M
LEC$9M
08The trade, start to finishWhat Activision collected for the twelve inaugural Overwatch League seats, against what it paid nineteen teams to dissolve the league in 2023.
The trade, start to finish — Why esports collapsed and who got paid for it−$200M−$100M$0M$100M$200M$300M$240MCollected from12 seats, 2017−$114MPaid out to close it19 teams, 2023Modern MBA
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Value
Collected from 12 seats, 2017$240M
Paid out to close it 19 teams, 2023−$114M
09The publisher never needed any of itActivision Blizzard revenue split, in billions. Microtransactions overtook game sales around 2015 and the Overwatch League stayed under 1% of the total.
The publisher never needed any of it — Why esports collapsed and who got paid for it$0B$2B$4B$6B$3B$1B2010$4B$1B2012$3B$2B2014$2B$4B2016$2B$5B2018$2B$6B2020$2B$6B2022GAME SALESMICROTRANSACTIONSModern MBA
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Game salesMicrotransactions
2010$3B$1B
2012$4B$1B
2014$3B$2B
2016$2B$4B
2018$2B$5B
2020$2B$6B
2022$2B$6B
10What the buyers were told they were worthReported valuations of the leading organizations in 2019, at the top of the market. Six of the nine are American, where the venture capital was.
What the buyers were told they were worth — Why esports collapsed and who got paid for it$0M$100M$200M$300M$400M$400MCloud9$400MTSM$320MTeam Liquid$240MFaZe$210MImmortals$185MGen.G$175MFnatic$170MTeam Envy$165MG2Modern MBA
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Value
Cloud9$400M
TSM$400M
Team Liquid$320M
FaZe$240M
Immortals$210M
Gen.G$185M
Fnatic$175M
Team Envy$170M
G2$165M
11Everyone who listed, wiped outChange in share price and market capitalization since flotation. Not one listed esports organization has held its listing price.
Everyone who listed, wiped out — Why esports collapsed and who got paid for it−200%−150%−100%−50%0%−70%K1CK−85%Mad Lions−93%Luminosity−130%Astralis−140%Complexity−164%Heroic−188%Guild−191%FaZeModern MBA
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Value
K1CK−70%
Mad Lions−85%
Luminosity−93%
Astralis−130%
Complexity−140%
Heroic−164%
Guild−188%
FaZe−191%
12An agency with a logoGross margin against the media companies these organizations benchmarked themselves on. Over 70% of every deal passes through to the talent.
An agency with a logo — Why esports collapsed and who got paid for it0%10%20%30%40%50%49%New York Times44%BuzzFeed35%Fox25%GameSquareModern MBA
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Value
New York Times49%
BuzzFeed44%
Fox35%
GameSquare25%
13FaZe lost more in its best year than its worstRevenue against operating income since flotation, in millions. Cost of revenue rose in step with the top line, which is not how a media company works.
FaZe lost more in its best year than its worst — Why esports collapsed and who got paid for it−$75M−$50M−$25M$0M$25M$50M$75M$52M−$31M2021$70M−$49M2022$45M−$47M2023REVENUEOPERATING LOSSModern MBA
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RevenueOperating loss
2021$52M−$31M
2022$70M−$49M
2023$45M−$47M
14Six years of the same loss, filed out of sightCounter Logic Gaming's annual net losses, inferred from minority shareholder reports while Madison Square Garden held 65% and booked it beside the Knicks.
Six years of the same loss, filed out of sight — Why esports collapsed and who got paid for it−$25M−$20M−$15M−$10M−$5M$0M−$18M2018−$20M2019−$7M2020−$6M2021−$6M2022−$6M2023Modern MBA
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Value
2018−$18M
2019−$20M
2020−$7M
2021−$6M
2022−$6M
2023−$6M
15Winning the entire sport is not enoughIf Heroic had won every Counter-Strike tournament held in 2023. The whole sport's prize money, after the player split, still leaves a $318,292 shortfall.
Winning the entire sport is not enough — Why esports collapsed and who got paid for it−$10M$0M$10M$20M$30M$20.5MTotal prize pool2023$5.1MOrg's shareat 25%−$5.4MOperatingexpenses−$0.3MOperatingprofitModern MBA
View data
Value
Total prize pool 2023$20.5M
Org's share at 25%$5.1M
Operating expenses−$5.4M
Operating profit−$0.3M
01 / 15

Financial figures from company filings, S-1s and investor reports for FaZe Holdings, GameSquare, Enthusiast Gaming, Astralis Group, Guild Esports, Heroic, NIP Group, Allied Esports and Madison Square Garden Sports; franchise fees and termination payments from Activision Blizzard disclosures and contemporaneous ESPN and Sports Business Journal reporting; viewership from Newzoo and Esports Charts. Findings on shell-company acquirers and executive résumés are this episode’s own research into company registrations and public records

Key takeaways

01

Start with what is not true: the fans did not leave. Global viewership went from 134 million in 2012 to 427 million in 2019, and between 2019 and 2023 peak concurrents rose 61% for League of Legends, 67% for Rocket League and 27% for Counter-Strike. The audience held. The companies still vaporized. That makes this a story about who was selling, not about who was watching.

02

The audience was also never worth what the deck implied. Advertisers pay roughly $36 per thousand views in the United States but $8 in Korea and Poland and $2 in India, and esports viewership is global by construction — so a headline audience figure was close to meaningless as a revenue forecast, and everyone quoting it knew the split.

03

Every business plan in the sport was underwritten by one number nobody ever got near. The NFL collects $10 billion a year in domestic media rights and the NBA $6.9 billion. The three largest deals ever signed in esports were $53 million, $45 million and $38 million a year. The biggest was half a percent of the thing it was benchmarked against.

04

So the leagues stopped waiting for broadcast money and sold entry instead. Activision charged $20 million for each of the twelve inaugural Overwatch League seats — $240 million for a game that had been on sale five months and had never been tested as a spectator sport — and $25 million for the Call of Duty League, twice what Riot charged. A year later, on the strength of a single season, expansion seats were quoted at $30 to $60 million. Nothing had been proven; more buyers had simply arrived. That is the pricing logic of an auction, not a franchise.

05

Then the publisher paid the buyers to leave. By 2021 teams reportedly still owed around $400 million in unpaid franchise fees across the two leagues. In 2023 Activision waived what was outstanding and offered $6 million per team to dissolve the Overwatch League — about $114 million across nineteen teams, and enough, with the waiver, to make voting the league out of existence worth $12 to $13.5 million to an owner. The league died because ending it paid better than running it.

06

None of it ever mattered to the publisher. The Overwatch League was under 1% of Activision Blizzard’s consolidated revenue, while microtransactions overtook game sales around 2015 and reached roughly $6 billion a year. Esports was a marketing line item that happened to collect nine figures in entry fees on the way through.

07

The closed league was sold on a guaranteed revenue share, and the share never arrived. Counter Logic Gaming’s cut of the League Championship Series did not grow across six years of Madison Square Garden ownership — which is the entire premise a $13 million entry fee was sold on.

08

The organizations were not media companies and their own accounts say so. GameSquare’s gross margin is 25% against 49% at The New York Times, 44% at BuzzFeed and 35% at Fox, because more than 70% of every brand deal and prize pool passes straight through to contracted streamers and players. A company that keeps a quarter of its revenue is an agency with a logo.

09

FaZe is the clearest single set of numbers. Revenue of $52 million, $70 million and $45 million across 2021 to 2023 against operating losses of $31 million, $49 million and $47 million — it lost more in its best revenue year than in its worst. Shares went from about $20 to 18 cents in under two years.

10

Winning does not fix any of it. Had Heroic won every Counter-Strike tournament held in 2023, the entire prize pool of $20.5 million would have returned about $5.1 million after the standard player split, against $5.4 million of operating costs — leaving the org $318,292 down having won the whole sport.

11

Losses were hidden where nobody would look. Madison Square Garden bought 65% of Counter Logic Gaming in 2017 and consolidated it alongside the Knicks and Rangers; extrapolating from minority-shareholder filings, CLG lost roughly $6 million a year for six straight years before being shut down and its only real asset sold to NRG, who paid in equity.

12

Every organization that listed has been wiped out. Eight listed orgs now quote between 6 cents and $1.14, against 2019 valuations of $400 million for Cloud9 and TSM and $320 million for Team Liquid. Astralis delisted itself in 2023 to stop spending half a million dollars a year on compliance.

13

The same people keep getting the next job, and they buy from each other. GameSquare rescued FaZe under a chief executive who had been FaZe’s own chief financial officer — the man who approved the spending and endorsed the model that took it from IPO to penny stock. It had already bought Complexity for $23 million from an org co-owned by Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones and land investor John Goff, the two men bankrolling GameSquare, then dumped it in 2024 at $10 million with 8% paid in cash.

14

Even the buildings lost money. Allied Esports spent $9 million on an arena at the Luxor in Las Vegas, then burned three chief executives in three years, each hired to find a buyer in Saudi Arabia or China because no appetite was left in North America. None appeared. It is now pivoting to Chinese mobile gambling apps and months from delisting.

15

The résumés do not survive a search. Former FaZe chief executive Lee Trink says he ran a Hollywood talent agency called Dare Mighty Entertainment for eight years; it has no website, no social presence, and was registered to the same Los Angeles house later used to register FaZe. NIP Group is led by Mario Ho, who claims a childhood as a maths prodigy and the youngest finance degree at MIT — neither verifiable in any published record — and posted a photograph of the MIT Green Building running Tetris as his own stunt, five years after it had been done and become a campus fixture.

16

The buyers of last resort are shells, and the money has no visible source. Heroic was sold at 18 cents a share to a company registered through a Norwegian law firm with a postal address in Cyprus and links to a sanctioned Russian gambling operator. TGS, months from bankruptcy at 5 Canadian cents a share, was bought for $18 million — three times its market value — by a two-person Illinois company whose own S-1 shows $1,000 in the bank against $400,000 of debt.

Common questions

Why did esports fail?

Not for lack of an audience. Global viewership tripled between 2012 and 2019 and the biggest titles kept growing after that. It failed because the revenue that audience was supposed to unlock never existed, and because the money that did exist moved in one direction. The largest media rights deal in the history of the sport was worth $53 million a year against the NFL's $10 billion. In the absence of broadcast money, publishers monetized the teams instead — charging $20 to $30 million for league seats — and the teams passed more than 70% of what they earned through to talent. Value flowed up to publishers and sideways to creators. Shareholders were last in the queue and got nothing.

Is esports a scam?

Mostly it is something harder to prosecute and worse to be caught in. The Overwatch League fee structure was entirely legal: Activision sold $240 million of seats in a five-month-old game, raised the price the following year, waived the unpaid balance in 2023 and paid about $114 million to shut the league down. Nobody was defrauded; everybody was priced. Around that core there is a layer that is genuinely opaque — shell-company acquirers with Cyprus postal addresses, an $18 million purchase of a near-bankrupt arena by a two-person firm with $1,000 in the bank, executive résumés that return nothing on a search. Those transactions have never been explained. The absence of an explanation is the story.

Who actually made money in esports?

Three groups. Publishers, who collected entry fees for leagues they had no obligation to keep open and never depended on esports for revenue in the first place. Talent, who took more than 70% of every brand deal and prize pool, then in several cases took equity in the organizations paying them. And early holders who sold, most cleanly Astralis, whose only profitable year in its existence came from selling its LEC slot for $19 million. Nobody made money operating a team. Every publicly listed organization is a penny stock.

Why did teams pay $20 million to join the Overwatch League?

Because the pitch was that a closed league would concentrate viewership on a fixed set of teams and distribute a guaranteed revenue share, exactly as the NFL and NBA do. Twelve teams paid $20 million each in 2017 for a game that had been on sale five months, and expansion seats were quoted at $30 to $60 million the following year on the strength of a single season. The seats were booked as long-lived assets and written down slowly, so the losses persisted long after the leagues contracted. Counter Logic Gaming's accounts show the promised revenue share never grew.

Do esports teams make money?

Effectively none of them, and winning does not change it. If Heroic had won every Counter-Strike tournament held in 2023, the whole sport's prize money after the player split would have left it $318,292 in the red against its operating costs. FaZe lost $31 million, $49 million and $47 million across three years. Counter Logic Gaming lost roughly $6 million a year for six years inside Madison Square Garden. Astralis lost money on every team and every division it ever ran. The one profitable year in that set came from selling a league slot.

What happened to FaZe Clan?

It went public in 2022 and fell from about $20 to 18 cents in under two years. Esports was less than 15% of revenue; sponsorship was the majority; and cost of revenue stayed above 70% because most brand and tournament income passed through to independent content creators who represented FaZe exclusively but were never employees. In 2023 it was sold to GameSquare in an equity deal, and GameSquare's shares are now worth about as little. The chief executive who ran the rescue was FaZe's former chief financial officer.

Who is running esports now?

After the publishers, venture funds and traditional sports owners left, what remains is Saudi state money, online casinos, crypto exchanges and shell companies. Heroic's buyer was registered through a Norwegian law firm with a Cyprus postal address. The Vancouver arena operator TGS was bought at three times its market value by a two-person Illinois firm with $1,000 in the bank. NIP Group listed on the NASDAQ in 2024 proposing to run education, talent management, venue rental, event production and content simultaneously — every model that has already failed, at once.

Why did nobody report on the esports collapse?

Because the trade press depended on the industry for access and advertising, and general business media never treated esports as large enough to warrant a desk. The result is that the collapse produced no accountability and no institutional memory, so the same operators recycle. Executives blamed for one failure are hired to fix the next. Orgs are sold between entities with overlapping ownership. Acquirers with no disclosed source of funds buy distressed assets above market and are never asked why.

Is esports dying?

The audience is not. Between 2019 and 2023 peak viewership rose 61% for League of Legends, 67% for Rocket League and 27% for Counter-Strike, while Fortnite fell 69% and PUBG 47% — consolidation onto fewer titles rather than decline. What died is the investment thesis and the corporate layer built on it. Competitive gaming existed before any of this money arrived and continues without it. The claim that was never true is that the watching is worth a billion dollars to somebody other than the person selling the seats.

Discussion

  1. The case argues esports was not a business that failed but a transfer that completed. What distinguishes those two things from the outside, and how long does it usually take to tell?

  2. Activision sold twelve Overwatch League seats at $20 million each for a game five months old with no record as a spectator sport, then quoted expansion seats at $30 to $60 million. What were the buyers actually purchasing?

  3. More than 70% of every brand deal and prize pool passed straight through to the players who generated it, leaving 25% gross margins. Those organizations described themselves as media companies. What were they?

  4. Nobody was wrong, in the sense that the people who priced it got exactly what they came for. Does that make it a fraud, a bubble, or a functioning market? Defend your answer.

  5. You want to build a durable esports business today. What do you have to own that these organizations did not?

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