Modern MBA

Case study — Retail & brands · 9 min read · 5 questions

Why Hermès bags are so hard to buy

The thesis

High fashion looks fragmented and is not. Buy $600 McQueen sneakers, a $4,000 Gucci bomber and a $2,500 YSL bag and you have bought from three brands and paid one company. LVMH holds Dior, Fendi, Givenchy and Louis Vuitton at $54 billion, more than four times Kering, which holds Gucci, Balenciaga, Bottega Veneta and YSL. The thrones change hands: Versace, Tory Burch and Coach ruled the 2000s and do not now.

Gucci is the loud strategy and by conventional measures it is winning — €4.3 billion to €9.6 billion in three years at a 40% operating margin, on nearly 500 stores. It sustains that by spending 12% of revenue on advertising and rotating half its product line every year, and it works: over half its customers are 35 or under. YSL and Moncler run the same game more conservatively and land in the same place.

Then there is Hermès, which does none of it and is the actual king. It stayed independent, makes 80% of its products by hand in France, and each bag is cut and stitched start to finish by one craftsman who trained four years before starting — 25 to 48 hours a bag, two to four a week. Every instinct says automate. Hermès does the opposite, and the scarcity is the product: bags are never sold online or displayed, and you earn the right to buy one by spending thousands on scarves and watches you may not want. It is a completely irrational way to sell, and it produces 14.2% average appreciation on 4% of revenue spent on marketing.

How do you think about this? 5 strategy questions this case raises and does not answer.
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The statistics

4% vs 12%Share of revenue spent on marketing, Hermès against Gucci
14.2%Average appreciation of a Hermès bag on the secondary market
25–48 hrsWork hours for one craftsman to hand-make a single Hermès bag

By the numbers — swipe or use arrows

01Gucci nearly tripled in five years, then lost a fifth in oneGucci annual revenue. Alessandro Michele's maximalism took it from €3.5B to €9.6B, and then 2020 removed 23% of it — against Hermès' 7%.
Gucci nearly tripled in five years, then lost a fifth in one — Why Hermès bags are so hard to buy€0M€2,500M€5,000M€7,500M€10,000M€3,369M2012€3,561M2013€3,497M2014€3,898M2015€4,378M2016€6,211M2017€8,285M2018€9,628M2019€7,441M2020Modern MBA
View data
Gucci annual revenue
Euros
2012€3,369M
2013€3,561M
2014€3,497M
2015€3,898M
2016€4,378M
2017€6,211M
2018€8,285M
2019€9,628M
2020€7,441M

Source: Modern MBA, “Why Hermès bags are so hard to buy”, published . Cite this chart · Sources

02Doing none of it, and growing four times overHermès annual revenue. €1.6B to €6.9B without discounting, without e-commerce, and on a quarter of the marketing spend Gucci runs.
Doing none of it, and growing four times over — Why Hermès bags are so hard to buy€0M€2,000M€4,000M€6,000M€8,000M€1,625M2007€1,765M2008€1,914M2009€2,401M2010€2,841M2011€3,484M2012€3,755M2013€4,119M2014€4,841M2015€5,202M2016€5,549M2017€5,966M2018€6,883M2019€6,389M2020Modern MBA
View data
Hermès annual revenue
Euros
2007€1,625M
2008€1,765M
2009€1,914M
2010€2,401M
2011€2,841M
2012€3,484M
2013€3,755M
2014€4,119M
2015€4,841M
2016€5,202M
2017€5,549M
2018€5,966M
2019€6,883M
2020€6,389M

Source: Modern MBA, “Why Hermès bags are so hard to buy”, published . Cite this chart · Sources

03How much of the line is a classic and how much is this seasonShare of the women’s loafer range by type, 2020. Saint Laurent carries no seasonal product at all; Gucci is close to half.
How much of the line is a classic and how much is this season — Why Hermès bags are so hard to buy0%25%50%75%100%100%0%Saint Laurent78%22%Prada64%36%Loewe56%44%Dior51%49%GucciCLASSICSFASHION ORIENTEDModern MBA
View data
Share of the women’s loafer range by type, 2020
ClassicsFashion oriented
Saint Laurent100%0%
Prada78%22%
Loewe64%36%
Dior56%44%
Gucci51%49%

Source: Modern MBA, “Why Hermès bags are so hard to buy”, published . Cite this chart · Sources

01 / 03

Revenue, growth rates, operating margins, store counts, advertising spend as a share of revenue, retail versus wholesale mix and product rotation rates from LVMH, Kering, Hermès International and Moncler annual reports and financial communications; Hermès craftsman training, factory counts and production times per bag from company disclosures and published reporting; secondary market appreciation figures as reported

Key takeaways

01

The industry looks fragmented and is an oligopoly. Buy $600 Alexander McQueen sneakers, a $4,000 Gucci bomber and a $2,500 YSL bag — three brands, one company. Gucci, YSL, Balenciaga and McQueen are all subsidiaries, not independent houses.

02

LVMH is the largest conglomerate at $54B annually, holding Dior, Fendi, Givenchy, Marc Jacobs and Louis Vuittonover 4 times the revenue of Kering, at €13B, which holds Gucci, Balenciaga, Bottega Veneta, McQueen and YSL.

03

Gucci is the aggressive strategy and it worked spectacularly: €4.3B to a record €9.6B in three years, over 35% growth or €2B a year — and even in the pandemic year it grossed €7.4B.

04

It buys that growth. Gucci spends a reported 12% of revenue, about €1.2 billion every year, on advertising across social, print and television — and it lands: over 50% of Gucci customers are 35 or younger.

05

Retail scale is Gucci's strongest arm. Nearly 500 stores worldwide, more than any other high fashion brand, with over 85% of sales coming from retail for the past five years, on top of wholesale to department stores and outlets for people who want the status without the full price.

06

The product strategy is deliberate churn. Gucci rotates half its entire product mix annually — keeping 50% bestsellers and replacing the other 50% — so there is something for the traditional connoisseur and something for the trend-driven shopper. New products account for 30% of total business, at a 40% operating margin.

07

YSL is the traditionalist and grows accordingly. Bags at $1,000-2,000, only 200 stores, no outlets and no licensing, rarely changing the core mix beyond seasonal items — €1.5B to €2.1B in three years, about 12% growth or €200M a year, at a 25% operating margin.

08

Hermès breaks every rule the others follow, and it is the king. It has remained independent through the decades of M&A that consolidated everyone else, and grew from €5.5B to €6.8B in three years while its growth rate doubled from 7% to 15% — on just 300 stores.

09

The manufacturing is the strategy, not a legacy quirk. 80% of all Hermès products are made by hand exclusively in France, in 44 factories the company owns and operates, with 5,600 craftsmen across 22 leather factories.

10

The assembly line does not exist at Hermès. Each bag is cut from hides and hand-stitched with needle and thread by the same individual craftsman from beginning to end — who must first complete 4 years of vocational training, graduate an in-house tanning school, and serve 18 months of mentorship.

11

The throughput is deliberately tiny. A single bag takes 25 to 48 work hours depending on intricacy, and a craftsman makes at most 2 to 4 bags a week. Where every other business chases speed, automation and scale, Hermès takes the view that less is more.

12

Scarcity is enforced at the point of sale. Hermès bags are never shown or sold online, never publicly available in stores, never on display — only presented privately, in a back room, to an exclusive set of clients.

13

You have to earn the right to buy one. Allocation runs on loyalty: you must be a regular who has spent consistently on non-bag products — shoes, scarves, perfume, jewelry, furniture, watches — before you are offered the chance at a bag at all.

14

And the offer is coercive by design. The bag you are shown may not be the size, color or style you want — and declining risks losing loyalty standing, being judged unworthy, and never being offered another. The system pressures you to buy whatever is presented, at whatever price.

15

The economics vindicate it. Hermès spends only 4% of revenue on marketing — a third of what Gucci spends — and was on track to clear €7B, close to Gucci's top line, without buying a single point of that demand.

16

And the product appreciates. Because so many people are unwilling or unable to become the customer Hermès requires, demand routes to the secondary market, where bags are reported to appreciate an average of 14.2%a higher rate of return than the S&P 500 or gold.

Common questions

Who owns Gucci, YSL and Balenciaga?

Kering, the second-largest luxury conglomerate, which also owns Bottega Veneta and Alexander McQueen. The largest is LVMH, which owns Dior, Fendi, Givenchy, Marc Jacobs and Louis Vuitton and grosses about $54 billion a year — more than four times Kering's €13 billion. The industry looks fragmented but is an oligopoly: buying items from three different high fashion brands frequently means paying the same corporation three times.

Why is Hermès considered more successful than Gucci?

Because it achieves a comparable top line without buying demand, and it owns something Gucci cannot replicate. Gucci spends 12% of revenue — about €1.2 billion a year — on advertising to sustain its popularity. Hermès spends 4%, grew from €5.5 billion to €6.8 billion in three years while doubling its growth rate from 7% to 15%, remained independent through decades of consolidation, and produces goods that appreciate on the secondary market. Gucci has to keep spending to stay relevant; Hermès has to keep refusing to make more.

Why are Hermès bags so hard to buy?

Because the scarcity is the product and it is enforced deliberately. Bags are never sold online, never displayed publicly, and only presented in private to established clients. Allocation runs on demonstrated loyalty: you must first be a regular customer spending consistently on scarves, perfume, jewelry, shoes or watches. Only then might a store offer you a bag — possibly not in the size, color or style you want — and declining risks your standing and any future offer. Supply is genuinely constrained too: each bag takes one craftsman 25 to 48 hours.

How are Hermès bags made?

Entirely by hand, by one person, start to finish. There is no assembly line. Each bag is cut from hides and hand-stitched with needle and thread by a single craftsman, who must complete four years of vocational training, graduate one of Hermès' in-house tanning schools, and serve 18 months of mentorship before starting. A bag takes 25 to 48 work hours and a craftsman produces at most two to four a week. Hermès employs 5,600 craftsmen across 22 leather factories in France, out of 44 factories it owns and operates.

Do Hermès bags increase in value?

Reportedly by an average of 14.2%, which is a higher rate of return than the S&P 500 or gold. The mechanism is straightforward: production is deliberately slow, supply is constrained, and most people are unwilling or unable to become the loyal customer Hermès requires — so that unmet demand routes into the secondary market, where the bags resell at a premium. Hermès also never allows returns, refunds or exchanges after purchase.

What is Gucci's business strategy?

Scale and speed. Gucci brands, licenses and sells across an enormous product range — watches, perfumes, flip flops, sneakers, hats, belts, eyeglasses, children's clothing, furniture, even playing cards — through nearly 500 stores, more than any other luxury house, with over 85% of sales from retail. It rotates half its product mix annually, keeping bestsellers and refreshing the rest, and spends about €1.2 billion a year on advertising. The result was €4.3 billion to €9.6 billion in three years at a 40% operating margin, with over half its customers aged 35 or under.

How does YSL compare to Gucci?

Same conglomerate, opposite temperament. YSL is a traditionalist — mid-range pricing on its signature $1,000–2,000 leather bags, only 200 stores, no outlets, no licensing, and rare changes to the core product mix beyond seasonal items. It grew from €1.5 billion to €2.1 billion in three years, about 12% a year, at a 25% operating margin. Gucci grew at nearly three times that rate. YSL's difficulty is balancing tradition against the pace of modernization younger buyers expect.

Is luxury fashion an oligopoly?

Effectively, yes. The visible brand landscape is wide and the ownership is narrow: LVMH and Kering between them control Dior, Fendi, Givenchy, Marc Jacobs, Louis Vuitton, Gucci, Balenciaga, Bottega Veneta, Alexander McQueen and YSL. Hermès is the notable exception, having stayed independent through the decades of acquisition that consolidated nearly everyone else — which is part of why its playbook looks nothing like the rest of the industry's.

Discussion

  1. Gucci buys demand with 12% of revenue; Hermès manufactures scarcity and spends 4%. Both reach roughly the same top line. Which position would you rather hold in a downturn, and why?

  2. Hermès requires customers to spend thousands on products they don't want to earn the right to buy the one they do. Is that brand equity or coercion — and does the distinction matter if customers keep doing it?

  3. Every instinct in modern operations says to automate 25-to-48-hour handmade production. Name the conditions under which refusing to automate is the correct financial decision, not just a romantic one.

  4. Gucci rotates half its product line every year and new products are 30% of the business. What is the risk in that dependence, and what happens to a house built on churn when the trend turns?

  5. The thrones keep changing — Versace, Coach and Tory Burch ruled the 2000s and don't now. What does Hermès have that those houses didn't, and could a conglomerate-owned brand ever build it?

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