Modern MBA

Case study — Food & beverage · 9 min read · 5 questions

How much a taco truck actually makes

The thesis

Los Angeles is the hardest restaurant market in America after New York, and within it Mexican is the hardest category. There are 3,500 Mexican restaurants in LA — more than American, burger, pizza, Japanese and Korean each — plus 4,000 mobile vendors. What that saturation produces is not consolidation but the opposite: nobody can corner anything, because a customer can always find someone cheaper one block over.

Which leaves two strategies. You innovate, or you take territory. Territory runs on an honor system with no map and no enforcement: streets are public property, so you claim a spot by being first to sell there and hold it by showing up every day. Parking within half a mile of another vendor is a breach. The best pitches were claimed decades ago, which is why Jorge cannot move without starting over.

The vendor who understood territory best is the one nobody has heard of. Tacos La Güera has no branding, no signage, no website and no place on any top-ten list — two sisters who spent seventeen years blanketing neighborhoods with stands ten minutes apart, sometimes deliberately one block from each other to warn competitors off. An average stand grosses $445,000; the fifteen we could find gross about $7.58 million between them. MidEast Tacos took the other route entirely: a 480-square-foot fusion shop with nowhere to sit and a $26.50 average check.

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The statistics

$7.58MTacos La Güera's portfolio, from unbranded stands
$26.50Average check at MidEast Tacos, above most sit-down restaurants
3,500Mexican restaurants in LA — the largest category in the city

By the numbers — swipe or use arrows

01Only one other American city has a street economy like thisRestaurants and mobile vendors by city, 2023. Miami has 8,141 restaurants and 331 street vendors; LA has 4,000.
Only one other American city has a street economy like this — How much a taco truck actually makes05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00023,6505,100New YorkNew York8,141331Miami7,5004,000Los AngelesLos Angeles7,300276ChicagoChicago6,000300Philadelphia4,415400San FranciscoSanFranciscoRESTAURANTSMOBILE VENDORSModern MBA
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RestaurantsMobile vendors
New York23,6505,100
Miami8,141331
Los Angeles7,5004,000
Chicago7,300276
Philadelphia6,000300
San Francisco4,415400
02Mexican is the largest category in Los AngelesRestaurants in Los Angeles by cuisine, 2024. More than double the next category.
Mexican is the largest category in Los Angeles — How much a taco truck actually makes01,0002,0003,0004,0003,500Mexican1,553American1,400Burger1,200Pizza894Japanese720Chinese637Italian514KoreanModern MBA
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Value
Mexican3,500
American1,553
Burger1,400
Pizza1,200
Japanese894
Chinese720
Italian637
Korean514
03And no county comes closeCounties with the greatest number of Mexican restaurants, 2024. Los Angeles has more than twice the next.
And no county comes close — How much a taco truck actually makes02,0004,0006,0005,484Los AngelesCA2,362HarrisTX1,712San DiegoCA1,705MaricopaAZ1,584CookILModern MBA
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Value
Los Angeles CA5,484
Harris TX2,362
San Diego CA1,712
Maricopa AZ1,705
Cook IL1,584
04A truck's week depends entirely on the weatherGross earnings by week at Los Gatos, truck against taqueria. The restaurant is insulated; the truck is not.
A truck's week depends entirely on the weather — How much a taco truck actually makes$0$5,000$10,000$15,000$3,000$4,000Bad week$5,500$9,000Average week$8,000$14,000Good weekTRUCKTAQUERIAModern MBA
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TruckTaqueria
Bad week$3,000$4,000
Average week$5,500$9,000
Good week$8,000$14,000
05The restaurant earns double, and he keeps the truck anywayLos Gatos average annual gross earnings. Giving up the truck would mean giving the corner to a competitor.
The restaurant earns double, and he keeps the truck anyway — How much a taco truck actually makes$0$250,000$500,000$750,000$231,000Truck$468,000Taqueria$699,000CombinedModern MBA
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Value
Truck$231,000
Taqueria$468,000
Combined$699,000
06Three ways to price a tacoAverage check size against leading restaurant chains. MidEast beats most full-service sit-down restaurants.
Three ways to price a taco — How much a taco truck actually makes$0.00$10.00$20.00$30.00$26.50MidEast$22.50Olive Garden$19.68Texas Roadhouse$17.50La Güera$16.00Shake Shack$13.50Los Gatos$11.00McDonald's$10.89Denny's$6.17Del Taco$5.93Taco BellModern MBA
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Value
MidEast$26.50
Olive Garden$22.50
Texas Roadhouse$19.68
La Güera$17.50
Shake Shack$16.00
Los Gatos$13.50
McDonald's$11.00
Denny's$10.89
Del Taco$6.17
Taco Bell$5.93
07A 480-square-foot fusion shop against the chainsAverage annual gross earnings of a single brick-and-mortar location. MidEast Tacos out-grosses the average Taco Bell.
A 480-square-foot fusion shop against the chains — How much a taco truck actually makes$0$500,000$1,000,000$1,500,000$2,000,000$2,500,000$1,950,000MidEast$1,800,000Taco Bell$1,603,000Del Taco$468,000Los GatosModern MBA
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Value
MidEast$1,950,000
Taco Bell$1,800,000
Del Taco$1,603,000
Los Gatos$468,000
08What each vendor earns from one locationAverage annual earnings by single location. A La Güera stand earns roughly what a full taqueria does.
What each vendor earns from one location — How much a taco truck actually makes$0$500,000$1,000,000$1,500,000$2,000,000$2,500,000$1,950,000MidEastMidEast$445,000La Güera standLa Güerastand$468,000Los Gatos taqueriaLos Gatostaqueria$231,000Los Gatos truckLos GatostruckModern MBA
View data
Value
MidEast$1,950,000
La Güera stand$445,000
Los Gatos taqueria$468,000
Los Gatos truck$231,000
09Where the money goesFood and labor costs as a share of revenue. Overhead adds 10% at the truck and stand, 20% at MidEast and 25% at the taqueria.
Where the money goes — How much a taco truck actually makes0%10%20%30%40%30%30%Los Gatos truckLos Gatostruck30%35%Los Gatos taqueriaLos Gatostaqueria27%29%MidEastMidEast30%20%La Güera standLa GüerastandFOOD COSTSLABOR COSTSModern MBA
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Food costsLabor costs
Los Gatos truck30%30%
Los Gatos taqueria30%35%
MidEast27%29%
La Güera stand30%20%
10The empire nobody has heard ofAverage yearly gross earnings by vendor, portfolio-wide. La Güera's figure covers only the fifteen stands that could be identified.
The empire nobody has heard of — How much a taco truck actually makes$0$2,000,000$4,000,000$6,000,000$8,000,000$7,580,300La Güera$1,950,000MidEast$699,000Los GatosModern MBA
View data
Value
La Güera$7,580,300
MidEast$1,950,000
Los Gatos$699,000
01 / 10

Restaurant and mobile vendor counts by city and county from 2023–24 industry data; average check sizes, weekly and annual gross earnings and cost breakdowns disclosed on camera by the owners of Los Gatos Tacos, MidEast Tacos and Tacos La Güera; chain average unit volumes and check sizes from company disclosures; La Güera's portfolio figure is based on the fifteen stands that could be identified publicly and is likely understated

Key takeaways

01

Los Angeles is second only to New York on restaurant count and it is not close on the street. NYC has 23,650 restaurants and 5,100 mobile vendors; LA has 7,500 and 4,000; Miami 8,141 and 331; Chicago 7,300 and 276; Philadelphia 6,000 and 300; San Francisco 4,415 and 400. Only one American city has a street-food economy at LA's scale.

02

Nationally the concentration is the same. Los Angeles County has 5,484 Mexican restaurants against 2,362 in Harris County, Texas, 1,712 in San Diego, 1,705 in Maricopa and 1,584 in Cook County. There is no comparable market anywhere in the country.

03

Saturation of that kind does not produce a winner. It produces the opposite — no vendor can corner anything, because a customer can always find someone cheaper or better one block over. Demand never wanes and supply keeps rising, which leaves exactly two ways to compete: innovation or territory.

04

Territory is claimed rather than bought, and there is no map. Streets and sidewalks are public property, so you take a spot by being the first to sell there and you keep it by operating day after day until word spreads that it is yours. Professional etiquette holds the whole system together: parking within half a mile of another vendor is a breach, even if you sell something different.

05

Los Gatos Tacos is the neighborhood strategy. Jorge serves about 80 customers a night at $13.50 a head — a check size in line with fast casual chains — and deliberately never prices above the local market. He is not chasing the best birria in LA, only birria good enough that the block keeps coming back.

06

The restaurant is the better business and he knows it. Los Gatos's taqueria seven blocks away grosses $14,000 in a good week and $4,000 in a bad one, against $8,000 and $3,000 for the truck — $468,000 a year against $231,000, nearly double.

07

But the truck wins on margin. It runs on three people — one cashier, one taco builder, one tortilla maker — where the taqueria needs more staff for the same hours: food, labor and overhead take 70% at the truck against 90% at the restaurant.

08

Which is why he keeps both. Giving up the truck means giving up the corner to a competitor, and it took five years to establish. Move it to a wealthier neighborhood and he could raise prices — and would be starting from zero.

09

MidEast Tacos is the innovation strategy, and it is not a garnish. Armen and Aram did not swap the meat into a taco; they rebuilt every element into an Armenian-Mexican fusion product, after seven years of testing the market as a weekly food trailer before committing to a storefront.

10

The positioning shows up entirely in the check. Customers spend $26.50 an order at MidEast Tacos — more than most conventional sit-down restaurants, and against $22.50 at Olive Garden, $19.68 at Texas Roadhouse, $16.00 at Shake Shack, $11.00 at McDonald's, $6.17 at Del Taco and $5.93 at Taco Bell.

11

The result puts it level with the chains. A single MidEast Tacos location is projected at $1,950,000 a year against $1,800,000 for the average Taco Bell and $1,603,000 for the average Del Taco — and $468,000 for Los Gatos's taqueria.

12

Tacos La Güera is the territorial strategy taken to its conclusion, and it is invisible on purpose. No branding, no signage, no logo, no website, no viral moment, no place on any top-ten list — the only thing the stands visibly share is their equipment.

13

The method is blanket coverage. Stands go no more than 10 minutes apart, and sometimes deliberately one block from each other to signal to competitors that the area is taken. Their reasoning is explicit: better to compete with themselves than with somebody else. If they do not take the land, the competition will.

14

The economics are extraordinary for a stand. Average check is $17.50, between Los Gatos and MidEast. An average La Güera stand grosses roughly $445,000 a year — comparable to Los Gatos's entire brick-and-mortar taqueria — with the leanest cost base of anyone here: 30% food, 20% labor and 10% overhead.

15

Across the portfolio it is a different business entirely. The 15 stands that could be identified gross about $7,580,300 a year between them, against $1,950,000 for MidEast Tacos and $699,000 for Los Gatos across truck and taqueria combined — and Rosio would only confirm so much, so the real number is probably higher.

16

Three strategies, three completely different businesses, one market. Jorge follows the wind and takes care of the neighborhood so the neighborhood takes care of him. Armen and Aram spent nearly a decade and considerable money inventing something new. Rosio and her sister were first movers with the ambition to stay first. In a market this saturated, what does not work is being none of the three.

Common questions

How much does a taco truck make in Los Angeles?

Los Gatos Tacos grosses about $8,000 in a good week and as little as $3,000 in the rain, for roughly $231,000 a year, serving around 80 customers a night at a $13.50 average check. Its brick-and-mortar taqueria seven blocks away does $14,000 in a good week and $4,000 in a bad one, for $468,000 — nearly double the truck. The truck wins on margin, though: it runs on three people and takes about 70% in food, labor and overhead against 90% at the restaurant.

How do taco vendors claim their spots?

By showing up. Streets and sidewalks are public property, so there is no registry, no map and no legal claim — you take a location by being the first to sell there, and you hold it by operating day after day until word spreads that it is yours. Professional etiquette does the rest: parking within half a mile of another vendor is considered disrespectful even if you sell something different. The best pitches in Los Angeles, like the Hollywood Walk of Fame and the Santa Monica Pier, were claimed decades ago, which is why an established corner is worth years of work to build and impossible to move.

What is the most profitable taco business in LA?

By portfolio, Tacos La Güera — two sisters running unbranded stands, grossing roughly $7,580,300 a year across the fifteen locations that could be identified publicly, against $1,950,000 for a single MidEast Tacos and $699,000 for Los Gatos across a truck and a taqueria. Per location, MidEast Tacos leads at $1,950,000 on a $26.50 average check. But the leanest cost structure belongs to a La Güera stand: 30% food, 20% labor, 10% overhead, on a $445,000 average — roughly what a full brick-and-mortar taqueria grosses, with almost none of the overhead.

Why is the LA taco market so competitive?

Because supply keeps rising and nobody can lock anything in. Los Angeles has 3,500 Mexican restaurants — the largest category in the city, ahead of American at 1,553 and burger at 1,400 — plus 4,000 mobile vendors, and LA County alone has 5,484 Mexican restaurants against 2,362 in the next county down. That density means a customer can always find someone cheaper or better one block over, so no vendor can corner a neighborhood on price or quality alone. The two strategies that actually work are innovating into a category nobody else serves, or claiming and holding physical territory.

Is a taco stand better than a restaurant?

It depends what you are optimizing for. A restaurant grosses more — Los Gatos's taqueria does nearly double its truck — because you can charge more for identical food, hold inventory, ignore the weather and sell beer, wine and liquor that trucks are not permitted to. A stand or truck wins on cost: three staff instead of a full crew, minimal overhead, and no rent. La Güera's entire empire is built exclusively on stands and the occasional truck, at 60% total costs against 90% for a taqueria, which is how fifteen stands out-gross most restaurant groups.

How does MidEast Tacos charge $26.50 for tacos?

By not selling tacos as tacos. Armen and Aram rebuilt every element into an Armenian-Mexican fusion product rather than swapping the filling, tested the market for seven years as a weekly food trailer before signing a lease, and opened in Silver Lake — a neighborhood with an Erewhon where over 60% of residents are college-educated. The shop is 480 square feet, triangular, with nowhere to sit and no service. The $26.50 average check is higher than most full-service sit-down restaurants, and the first year as a brick-and-mortar is projected to gross seven figures.

Discussion

  1. Saturation in LA produced the opposite of consolidation: nobody can corner anything because a customer can always find someone cheaper a block over. When does a fragmented market stay fragmented forever?

  2. Territory runs on an honor system with no map and no enforcement — you claim a spot by being first to sell there. Why does an informal system hold, and what would break it?

  3. The two available strategies are to innovate or to take territory. Which is more defensible here, and which would you personally be able to execute?

  4. There are 3,500 Mexican restaurants and 4,000 mobile vendors in one city. What does that density do to wages, to prices, and to the odds any single operator gets rich?

  5. You have one truck and enough capital for a second. Do you buy it, and where do you put it?

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