Case study — Food & beverage · 10 min read · 5 questions
How Burger King lost second place to Wendy's
By Yishan Lin · Aired · Published
The thesis
Burger King did not lose second place to a bigger rival. Wendy's has a third as many restaurants worldwide. Burger King lost it because, for thirteen years, three chief executives ran it on the same idea: a barbell menu with cheap deals at one end and premium burgers at the other, so there was something for everyone. That is a pricing strategy, not a product strategy: the peanut butter approach, spread evenly so that no bet can be wrong. It never said why anyone should want the food, and eventually Burger King's customers could not say either.
Private equity made the numbers look superb. 3G Capital bought Burger King for $4 billion in 2010, sold every company restaurant to franchisees, and lifted the operating margin from 15% to 69% by 2014. Revenue fell from $2.5 billion to $1 billion, by design, and royalties became the business. But the average restaurant sold $1.18 million in 2009 and $1.18 million in 2014. New items were picked for being easy to make, and growth came from opening abroad.
Wendy's spent the same years on the food. In the recession it refused to bet everything on one 99-cent item, raised prices on the chili and baked potatoes no one else sold, made its patties 40% thicker, and closed restaurants that fell below standard. It franchised more only once the product worked. Wendy's now sells $11.1 billion in the US to Burger King's $9.9 billion, from 700 fewer restaurants, and Burger King is spending $400 million trying to get its flame back.
How do you think about this? 5 strategy questions this case raises and does not answer.
Answer them below
Operating margins, revenue mix, store counts, system sales, average sales per restaurant and US sales are Burger King's and Wendy's figures as stated in the episode; the superfan profile, value-menu and coupon comparisons, and the Reclaim the Flame budget are as stated in the episode; quotes from executives are as the episode gives them
© Modern MBA. Quote and cite with credit and a link; republishing needs permission.
Key takeaways
Burger King's bosses in the 2000s had never run restaurants. Greg Brenneman, a turnaround specialist, quit in 2006 after two years for Quiznos, and the CFO, John Chidsey, a veteran of rental cars and soda, was promoted to steady things before the IPO. His first orders followed the KFC route: franchise more, cut costs, grow overseas.
At home he needed an answer to McDonald's, and came up with the barbell: value items at one end as loss leaders, premium burgers at the other to make the money back. Above all he wanted the superfan, men aged 18 to 34 who averaged 15 fast-food visits a month, reportedly 18% of Burger King's customers and half of all fast-food traffic.
So the brand got loud and male: the Angry Whopper, blockbuster tie-ins, the Whopper Virgins campaign, and a $3.99 body spray sold as "the scent of seduction with a hint of flame-broiled meat." A health push of apple fries and grilled chicken tenders flopped, and to his credit Chidsey dropped it rather than chase it the way McDonald's did.
His real focus was price: a $1 Whopper Jr., a $1 double cheeseburger, two Whoppers for $4, and restaurants told to stay open around the clock wherever possible. The logic was simple, a cheap sale beats no sale, and in a recession that pushed unemployment among 18 to 34 year olds as high as 20%, it kept revenue up. The deals were better than anything McDonald's offered.
The deals also split the system. Royalties are a percentage of gross sales, so the franchisor wants volume while franchisees live on margin. A $1 burger only pays when the customer adds fries and a drink, and in the recession customers bought the $1 burger alone. Franchisees, barred from charging more, lost money on their bestsellers and sued Burger King for forcing unprofitable prices on them.
Chidsey's most disputed change was in the kitchen. Burger King replaced its open-flame broilers with enclosed machines that cooked patties in batches at preset times and temperatures, at the push of a button, and switched off between batches. He sold them on savings in gas, power and air conditioning, and on cooking ribeye or ribs someday. By 2011 every restaurant had one, and fans still say the taste went with the flame.
By 2011 same-store sales were falling, sales per restaurant had stalled, operating margin sat at 13 to 15%, and the franchised share was rising about a point a year. That year Wendy's overtook Burger King in US sales for the first time. 3G Capital, which had bought the chain for $4 billion in late 2010, let Chidsey go. In 2019 he became CEO of Subway, and has angered its franchisees with heavy discounting.
3G installed one of its own, Daniel Schwartz, a Cornell economics graduate who became CFO in 2011 and CEO in 2013 at 32, with no restaurant, operating or management experience. The plan was the one everyone knew: grow abroad, cut costs, become a pure franchisor with margins above 20%. Unlike Chidsey, he moved fast. He settled the value-menu lawsuit and promised franchisees a say in decisions.
The franchised share went from 88% in 2009 to 100% by 2014, and company restaurants from 1,500 to 52. Revenue shrank from $2.5 billion to $1 billion while royalties went from 10% of it to more than 90%. Operating margin climbed from 15% to 21%, 46% and then 69%. The jet, jobs and much of the menu went, and in 2012 3G relisted Burger King in New York.
Customers felt none of it. Sales across all Burger King restaurants rose from $14.3 billion in 2009 to $17 billion in 2014, about 3% a year, but the chain had gone from 12,000 restaurants to over 14,000. The average one sold $1.18 million in 2009 and $1.18 million five years later. The growth was new doors. Demand had not moved.
With every restaurant in franchisees' hands, the menu was designed for them. New items had to add as few steps and ingredients as possible, so most were old parts rearranged, like the Extra Long Jalapeño Cheeseburger: regular patties, lettuce and cheese on the chicken sandwich bun with jalapeños. Launches became fewer. The flat $1 value menu became a $1 to $2 ladder with franchisees setting prices, and the marketing was aimed at everyone.
Novelty filled the gaps: Froot Loops shakes, grilled hot dogs, and Mac n' Cheetos that arrived frozen and went straight into the fryer. They went viral and vanished. Taco Bell made creativity its identity; Burger King never committed to the gimmicks or the flame-grilled classics. "We believe in a balanced approach," Schwartz said. It was the peanut butter approach: spread evenly over everything, the effort was too thin to matter anywhere.
Growth abroad hid the decay. From 2011, master franchise joint ventures gave local partners exclusive rights to a country, freed from the cost-cutting at home, and their menus were more inventive than America's. Revenue and profit rose from 2014 to 2018, yet in 2018 a Burger King still sold what one had a decade earlier, in the depths of the recession. With royalties flowing, nobody minded.
José Cil, at the company for over 18 years, took over in 2019 and preached the same balance. $1 tacos were mocked and pulled. With the Impossible Whopper, Burger King became the first major chain to sell a plant-based burger; months later the $7 novelty was going two for $6. By 2020 he admitted, "The Whopper is a multi-billion dollar brand, and we need to treat it as such." It left the value menu in 2022.
The hangover was deep: a value menu triple the length of McDonald's, and, even in 2020, triple the paper coupons its rivals mailed. Average restaurant sales grew just 3% in total from 2009 to 2021. In the US, Burger King sold $9.9 billion to Wendy's $11.1 billion, from 700 more restaurants. Its new plan, Reclaim the Flame, puts $400 million into ads, kitchens, remodels and technology.
Wendy's started 2009 in third, with system sales 40% below Burger King's, half the restaurants and an $800 million loss, and chose quality anyway. It spread value over three small 99-cent sandwiches, raising prices on chili and baked potatoes to cover franchisees, made patties 40% thicker, and closed weak franchises. By 2014 it had passed Burger King in revenue. Only then did it franchise more, keeping at least 5% of restaurants itself.
Discussion
- Question 1 of 5
Burger King's operating margin went from 15% to 69% while its average restaurant sold no more than before. Was 3G's ownership a success, and by whose measure?
What’s your take? - Question 2 of 5
Royalties are a share of sales, so a franchisor can gain from discounts that cost its franchisees money. How would you write a franchise deal so both sides want the same thing?
What’s your take? - Question 3 of 5
Schwartz made every new item easy for franchisees to make. Where is the line between operating discipline and a menu that stops getting better?
What’s your take? - Question 4 of 5
Wendy's raised prices on chili and baked potatoes to pay for its 99-cent menu, because no one else sold them. What products in a business you know carry that kind of pricing power, and why?
What’s your take? - Question 5 of 5
The case calls the barbell menu a pricing strategy posing as a product strategy. Name another company hedging every bet the same way. What would committing look like for it?
What’s your take?
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Common questions
Why did Burger King fall behind Wendy's?
Because for over a decade Burger King competed on price and convenience while Wendy's competed on food. Burger King's leaders ran a barbell menu of cheap deals and premium add-ons, cut costs, and made new items easy for franchisees rather than better for customers, so average sales per restaurant barely moved. Wendy's upgraded its burgers, ingredients and restaurants. Wendy's first overtook Burger King in US sales in 2011 and now sells $11.1 billion in the US to Burger King's $9.9 billion, with 700 fewer restaurants.
What was Burger King's barbell menu strategy?
A menu built like a barbell: value items at one end, sold at a loss to bring customers in, and premium burgers at the other, with higher margins to make up the difference. John Chidsey introduced it around 2008, and his successors Daniel Schwartz and José Cil kept it as a "balanced approach" for thirteen years. The flaw is that it sets prices without saying what Burger King is good at, and in practice the value end dominated.
Did Burger King stop flame-grilling its burgers?
It changed how it does it. Under John Chidsey, Burger King replaced its open-flame broilers with enclosed, pre-programmed machines that cook patties in batches and switch off between them, to save on gas, electricity and air conditioning. By 2011 every restaurant worldwide had them. The company maintains the change had no effect on flavor; some fast-food fans still say it ruined the flame-grilled taste that set Burger King apart.
How did private equity change Burger King?
3G Capital bought Burger King for $4 billion in late 2010 and turned it into a pure franchisor. Company-run restaurants fell from 1,500 in 2009 to 52 in 2014, revenue from $2.5 billion to $1 billion, and royalties rose from 10% of revenue to over 90%. Operating margin went from 15% to 69%. 3G relisted the company in 2012. Average sales per restaurant, $1.18 million, were the same in 2014 as in 2009.
Why did Burger King franchisees sue the company?
Over the $1 menu. During the recession Burger King required franchisees to sell the Whopper Jr. and double cheeseburger for $1, below cost. That works only if customers add fries and a drink, but many bought just the $1 item. Because royalties are a share of sales, Burger King still gained from the volume while franchisees lost money. They sued, arguing Burger King had no right to force unprofitable prices on them. The case was settled after 3G took over.
Why is Burger King so profitable?
Because it barely runs restaurants. Since 2014 franchisees have run nearly all of them, with less than 1% company-run, and Burger King earns mostly royalties and fees, which carry high margins with few costs. That took its operating margin to 69%. The profit says little about the restaurants themselves: average sales per Burger King grew just 3% in total from 2009 to 2021, and total sales growth came from opening more locations, much of it abroad.
How did Wendy's overtake Burger King?
By investing in the food when it was smallest. In 2009 Wendy's had system sales 40% below Burger King's and half as many restaurants. It kept discounting limited, raised prices on items only it sold, made patties 40% thicker, added toppings and better buns, retrained managers, closed weak franchises and removed artificial ingredients. It passed Burger King in US sales in 2011 and in revenue by 2014, and its average restaurant reached a record $1.8 million in sales in 2021.
What is Burger King's Reclaim the Flame plan?
Burger King's current turnaround strategy, which makes the guest experience, store traffic and sales the priority over short-term franchisee profits. The company has committed $400 million over two years to advertising, kitchen equipment, remodels and technology. Franchisees are being retrained, the Whopper is back at the center of the menu after being removed from the value menu in 2022, and executives have been hired from Domino's to refocus on food quality.
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